College of Computing, Engineering & Construction
Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)
NACO controlled Corporate Body
University of North Florida. School of Engineering
Dr. Christopher Brown
Dr. Cigdem Akan
Dr. Alexandra Schonning
Extreme flood estimation is a continuously developing field of research. Economic and community well-being are dependent on flood risk preventative planning, which can only be successfully implemented through sound flood estimating methods. Without the execution of proper flood prevention measures, many communities remain at risk. In addition to a new extreme flood estimation methodology, this research presents a new approach to establish flood estimates. Traditionally, more than one flood estimate per return frequency storm does not exist. This research produced a set of 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood estimates for the Black Creek, Julington Creek, Durbin Creek, Big Davis Creek, Ortega River, and Pablo Creek sub-basins in northeastern Florida. The flood estimates for each recurrence interval were developed using HSPF hydrologic modeling, statistical computations involving the use of the Log-Pearson Type III and Power Law distribution, and analysis of existing Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Study (FIS) estimates. Sensitivity of parameters such as land-use change, precipitation frequency values (median versus 90th percentile), and rainfall distribution (uniform versus Synthetic Type II Modified) were assessed in the resulting extreme flows determined from the HSPF Model. The hydrologic modeling component presented in this research utilizes the St. John’s River Water Management District’s (SJRWMD) powerful Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model. This is a new methodology as the SJRWMD’s HSPF model has previously never been used to estimate extreme flood flows. This methodology has the capability of being implemented in any sub-basin along the St. Johns River in Florida.
Kovalenko, Samantha, "Determination of extreme flood events in the Black Creek, Julington Creek, Dubin Creek, Big Davis Creek, Ortega River, and Pablo Creek sub-basins of the lower St. Johns River basin, Florida, USA" (2021). UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 1004.