Year

2021

Season

Spring

Paper Type

Master's Thesis

College

College of Computing, Engineering & Construction

Degree Name

Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)

Department

Engineering

NACO controlled Corporate Body

University of North Florida. School of Engineering

First Advisor

Dr. Christopher Brown

Second Advisor

Dr. Cigdem Akan

Rights Statement

http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Third Advisor

Dr. Alexandra Schonning

Department Chair

Dr. Osama Jadaan

College Dean

Dr. William F. Klostermeyer

Abstract

Extreme flood estimation is a continuously developing field of research. Economic and community well-being are dependent on flood risk preventative planning, which can only be successfully implemented through sound flood estimating methods. Without the execution of proper flood prevention measures, many communities remain at risk. In addition to a new extreme flood estimation methodology, this research presents a new approach to establish flood estimates. Traditionally, more than one flood estimate per return frequency storm does not exist. This research produced a set of 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood estimates for the Black Creek, Julington Creek, Durbin Creek, Big Davis Creek, Ortega River, and Pablo Creek sub-basins in northeastern Florida. The flood estimates for each recurrence interval were developed using HSPF hydrologic modeling, statistical computations involving the use of the Log-Pearson Type III and Power Law distribution, and analysis of existing Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Study (FIS) estimates. Sensitivity of parameters such as land-use change, precipitation frequency values (median versus 90th percentile), and rainfall distribution (uniform versus Synthetic Type II Modified) were assessed in the resulting extreme flows determined from the HSPF Model. The hydrologic modeling component presented in this research utilizes the St. John’s River Water Management District’s (SJRWMD) powerful Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model. This is a new methodology as the SJRWMD’s HSPF model has previously never been used to estimate extreme flood flows. This methodology has the capability of being implemented in any sub-basin along the St. Johns River in Florida.

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