Year

2021

Season

Summer

Paper Type

Master's Thesis

College

College of Computing, Engineering & Construction

Degree Name

Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)

Department

Engineering

NACO controlled Corporate Body

University of North Florida. School of Engineering

First Advisor

Dr. Raphael Crowley

Second Advisor

Cigdem Akan, Ph.D.

Third Advisor

Mark Gosselin, Ph.D., P.E.

Department Chair

Osama Jadaan, Ph.D.

College Dean

William Klostermeyer, Ph.D.

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the worst affected countries in the world in terms of tropical cyclone and storm surge effects. Until now, most of the research on annual exceedance of flood elevation for the coast of Bangladesh was based upon historical cyclone tracks along the coast. One of the major constraints of using historical tracks or tide gauge data to determine the annual exceedance of surge elevation is that the available sample size is often inadequate to capture the broad range of storm characteristics over the geographic region of interest. Over the years, several methods have been developed to increase these sample sizes. The Joint Probability Method (JPM) is one such method. It utilizes combinations of storm parameters to produce a large set of synthetic storms, but its downside is that it tends to be computationally expensive. To reduce this computational burden while maintaining accuracy, several optimal sampling methods (JPM-OS) have been introduced. While these methods effectively reduce the computational burden, they have their own limitations on ensuring a specific minimum error efficiently. This Manuscript introduces a new optimal sampling method named Response Surface Iteration for JPM analysis (JPM-OS-RSI). This iterative method incorporates the natural structure of smoothly varying surge response into results including the effect of bypassing storms within a certain error band. This new method was applied to the Bangladeshi coast where it was observed that surge response along the coast for a cyclone could be interpolated from two adjacent tracks through iterations. The number of tracks obtained through JMP-OS-RSI method was sufficient to produce surge response for interpolation using various parametric combinations. Results from these computations represent a comprehensive data set of surge height for all the possible combinations of storm surge parameters. These datasets may be further be used for JPM analysis in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

Available for download on Monday, August 07, 2023

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