ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5939-1569
Year
2024
Season
Summer
Paper Type
Master's Thesis
College
College of Computing, Engineering & Construction
Degree Name
Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)
Department
Engineering
NACO controlled Corporate Body
University of North Florida. School of Engineering
First Advisor
Dr. Ramin Shabanpour
Second Advisor
Dr. Thobias Sando
Third Advisor
Dr. Ryan Shamet
Department Chair
Alan Harris
College Dean
Dr. William Klostermeyer
Abstract
Florida encounters multiple natural disasters every year, making evacuation a critical mitigation plan when severe impacts are predicted. Evacuation is a complex procedure that involves everything from household decision-making to large-scale traffic network analysis. It also addresses logistical issues, such as transporting impacted people to shelters or medical centers. Access to shelters, gas stations, and lodgings is of utmost importance, as numerous studies and surveys have shown that some people prefer not to evacuate, even if they perceive the disaster risk to be very high.
Based on this, the present study follows two phases to address gaps in evacuation studies. The first path involves a spatial analysis of Florida to assess accessibility to shelters, gas stations, and hotels from community units (block groups). In this phase, the potential clusters of accessibility across different parts of Florida were analyzed using the Global and Local Moran's I methods. To investigate the simultaneous effects of access and hurricane risks, the Bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation method is used.
In the second phase, public risk perception of wind and flood during hurricanes is explored. People's perception of risk directly influences decisions such as whether to evacuate and how far to evacuate. This phase was based on several parameters, partially provided by survey results conducted by the University of Berkeley in 2017 during Hurricane Irma. These were enriched with spatial variables extracted from the Department of Transportation (DOT) and other departments on the socio-economic, demographic, and health status of respondents' residences. Also, the output from the first phase of this study is utilized to assess whether the access index influences public risk perception. For this analysis, an ordered probit model is used, as the dependent variables were the levels of perceived flood/wind risk, ranging from extremely unlikely to extremely likely.
Results from the first phase revealed significant areas with high access and high hurricane risk (HH), high access and low hurricane risk (HL), low access and high hurricane risk (LH), and low access and low risk (LL). Further study on the socio-economic background of these clusters highlighted significant differences in household car ownership, with people in LH areas likely not owning cars. This social inequity is also reflected in the Gini index, where LH areas have higher values.
The second phase results showed the significant impact of spatial parameters, such as access to lodgings and area resiliency, on how people perceive the risk of hurricane flooding. This phase also highlighted the importance of social media in shaping public risk perception across all types of evacuation orders, including mandatory, voluntary, and shelter-in-place orders.
The results of this study assist policymakers in two ways: first, by identifying areas with higher needs during evacuation to avoid fatalities and other impacts of large-scale disasters; and second, by demonstrating how internal and external factors influence people's risk perception. This information can be crucial for designing more effective evacuation strategies and communication plans.
Suggested Citation
Komeilian, Pooya, "Spatial equity in accessing critical facilities during hurricanes" (2024). UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 1291.
https://digitalcommons.unf.edu/etd/1291