College
COAS
Department
PSPA
Rank
Associate Professor
Florida and the 2016 Election of Donald J. Trump
Type of Work
Book
Publication Information
Corrigan, Matthew T., and Michael Binder. Florida and the 2016 Election of Donald J. Trump. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2019.
Description of Work
Showing how “chaos candidate” Donald Trump scored critical victories in Florida in an election cycle that defied conventional political wisdom, this volume offers surprising insights into the 2016 Republican primary and presidential election. Using historical and current election results, campaign spending numbers, United States Census data, and individual surveys, contributors examine how Trump handily won the primary over state favorites Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. They find that Trump won the small but crucial rural and suburban counties ignored by the Clinton campaign; that early voting was less decisive than had been assumed; that immigration was not the driving issue for the majority of Hispanic voters as analysts originally believed; and that African American voter turnout was down significantly from 2012 despite the racially divisive nature of Trump’s campaign. Essays also include a breakdown of how the unpredictable voting patterns in Central Florida’s I-4 corridor often determine which candidate takes the state. Florida’s clout should not be dismissed. The state awards more electoral votes than most, and its victor has gone on to claim the presidency in the last six elections. This volume forecasts the future of the most politically volatile state in the union and reveals emerging trends in the national political landscape.
Florida and the 2016 Election of Donald J. Trump
Showing how “chaos candidate” Donald Trump scored critical victories in Florida in an election cycle that defied conventional political wisdom, this volume offers surprising insights into the 2016 Republican primary and presidential election. Using historical and current election results, campaign spending numbers, United States Census data, and individual surveys, contributors examine how Trump handily won the primary over state favorites Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. They find that Trump won the small but crucial rural and suburban counties ignored by the Clinton campaign; that early voting was less decisive than had been assumed; that immigration was not the driving issue for the majority of Hispanic voters as analysts originally believed; and that African American voter turnout was down significantly from 2012 despite the racially divisive nature of Trump’s campaign. Essays also include a breakdown of how the unpredictable voting patterns in Central Florida’s I-4 corridor often determine which candidate takes the state. Florida’s clout should not be dismissed. The state awards more electoral votes than most, and its victor has gone on to claim the presidency in the last six elections. This volume forecasts the future of the most politically volatile state in the union and reveals emerging trends in the national political landscape.
Biographical Statement
Michael Binder is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North Florida and have been the Faculty Director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) since 2013. Formerly a Post-Doc and Visiting Scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, he received his Ph.D. from the University of California, San Diego in 2010. His research interests include voter decision-making, direct democracy, American politics and public opinion. He is a regular contributor to various media outlets and his research has been published in numerous peer-reviewed journals. His latest book, Florida and the 2016 Election of Donald J. Trump, is now available.