Assessment of factors associated with travel time reliability and prediction: an empirical analysis using probabilistic reasoning approach

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-19-2019

Abstract

Significant efforts have been made in modeling a travel time distribution and establishing measures of travel time reliability (TTR). However, the literature on evaluating the factors affecting TTR is not well established. Accordingly, this paper presents an empirical analysis to determine potential factors that are associated with TTR. This study mainly applies the Bayesian Networks model to assess the probabilistic association between road geometry, traffic data, and TTR. The results from this model reveal that land use characteristics, intersection factors, and posted speed limits are directly associated with TTR. Evaluating the strength of the association between TTR and the directly related variables, the log odds ratio analysis indicates that the land use factor has the highest impact (0.83) followed by the intersection factor (0.57). The findings from this study can provide valuable resources to planners and traffic operators in their decision-making to improve TTR with quantitative evidence.

Publication Title

Transportation Planning and Technology

Volume

42

Issue

4

First Page

309

Last Page

323

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1080/03081060.2019.1600239

ISSN

03081060

E-ISSN

10290354

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